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College Football Odds Week 3: Underdog Michigan State Will Roar, Best Bet

To Jeff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

What could be better than jumping into the official third week of the college football season? It’s all about finding games to wager that have the potential to win us all some cash.

In week 3, we’re looking at the Pac-12. Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen some pretty promising results from the Pac-12 force. I am thrilled that USC has regained its relevance. I’m also happy that Oregon rebounded with a strong win in Week 2.

So let’s dive into my best college football bets for Week 3, focusing on the Pac-12 (all odds by FOX Bet).

No. 12 BYU @No.25 Oregon (Saturday 3:30 PM ET, FOX)

This primetime non-conference matchup in Eugene will be a hard-fought battle between two teams that take pride in their physical play.

Oregon bounced back against Eastern Washington after embarrassing Georgia.

But I’m taking the bottom in this game. I’ll explain why.

Now, Oregon doesn’t trust quarterback Bo Nix. That’s evident in the design of the game plan and the lack of confidence Dax had for him on 3 down. They prefer to run the ball and avoid situations where Nix needs to be offensive, but their skills players in his position are much more talented than his BYU secondary his pieces. On paper, Oregon should move the ball in the air, but that’s not what they want right now.

BYU has a quarterback, Jaren Hall, who they’re counting on to return. He got off to a fast start to his 2022, gaining his 522 yards in his first two games for the Cougars. They rely on him to generate more offense than last season.In 2021, Hall only attempted 296 passes and rushed for over 300 yards for the Cougars.

I’ll have to look into this this weekend. BYU’s primary receiver is injured and his status in this contest is currently unknown. This means that an impressive start from the Cougars running back Christopher Brooks, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, will be the focus of his BYU run-heavy game plan against the Ducks.

The Oregon defense likes teams to run into two heavy hitters at linebackers. If BYU tries to throw the ball, Oregon has Christian Gonzalez lockdown his corner. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning was more concerned with defense last week, so I think his performance against Georgia is in the rearview mirror.

We don’t expect to get a ton of points in this game. Two run-heavy teams with good front sevens. One team doesn’t trust their quarterbacks, and the other team doesn’t have a top receiving target.

Both teams score in the 20s.

Choose: Less than 57 total points for both teams on FOX Bet

Fresno State @7 USC (Saturday 10:30 PM ET, FOX)

USC is exactly the team I expected. They were a dynamic group, especially in the first half of the game.Quarterback Caleb Williams completed 79.6% of his passes for 590 yards. Transferred receiver Jordan Addison added 226 yards on 12 receptions, and fellow receiver Mario Williams, a former Oklahoma player, added 117 yards in the air. is.

On the defensive side, USC forced turnovers to mask the stinky defensive units the Trojans put on the field. USC has forced eight turnovers in his 22 opponent drives defended. This should be a concern for USC fans, not a pace that can be sustained throughout the season.

They are 119th in rushing percentage, 88th in overall percentage, 109th in yards per possession and 76th in points per scoring opportunity (including eight drives ending in turnovers). included). However, USC’s poor defense is not unexpected.

Fresno State doesn’t have the talent to match USC, but they’ve always played the Trojan horse well. This is their Super Bowl. At some point, every kid playing this game wanted USC to adopt them. Bulldogs coach Jeff Tedford. While he struggled to beat USC during his time in Cal, he always seemed to be knocking on the door to success. Fresno’s quarterback is seasoned veteran Jake Hayner. He led the Bulldogs to the Rose Bowl last season for a UCLA upset. Hayner opened his two Bulldogs in his game he threw nearly 800 yards. Fresno’s defense will rely on the offense to keep pace because he’s going to have a hard time stopping USC.

My biggest concern about Fresno covering this game is Tedford’s conservatism in key moments of the game. He can’t do the “right” thing. He has to stay aggressive.

Fresno has this game covered.

Choose: Fresno State (+13 in FOX betting) loses (or wins outright) by less than 13 points

No. 11 Michigan @ Washington (Saturday at 7:30 PM ET, ABC)

I agree with the Spartans overcoming a point worth of field goals against the Huskies.

I know what Michigan is. They hit the rocks with Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard. They gained 58 carries and 362 yards in two weeks. Now, Michigan State is playing against a directional Michigan school and Akron, so they’ll need to rush the ball well. However, last season they confirmed that this is their identity.

On the other hand, Washington’s defense suffered from a run last season. After playing at Kent State and Portland State, it’s hard to see if any upgrades for 2022 will come from that run defense. Also of note, Washington as a whole struggled to rush passers in his first two games. The pressure is only 10 and Braren Trice accounts for half of that.

Washington Huskies fans are happy to see the downfield pass back in this offense. Under first-year head coach Karen DeBoer, Washington’s pass attack has been humming through two weekends. Indiana-transferred Michael Pennix Jr. completed 69.7% of his 66 pass attempts for 682 yards and his 6 touchdowns.

Now, Washington is facing Michigan’s pass defense, which last season was considered questionable, so they could move the ball. My concern with the Huskies’ passing attack is Michigan State’s ability to win on the front seven. After his two weeks into the season, they ranked him first in his Hubbaret percentage defensively, with 22 pressure in his first two games. Washington’s offensive line is sketchy in his 2021, and it’s hard to judge the team’s improvement after his two games against teams not on the field.

As such, expect stiff resistance from the Spartan defense this weekend.

I’m mostly going to help the team in the trenches where they’re scoring points. Especially when they know who they are as a team.

That’s why I support Spartans.

Choose: Michigan (+3.5 in FOX betting) loses (or wins outright) by less than 3.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. In his NFL he played eight seasons with five different teams. He started his three seasons at right tackle for the University of Oregon and was his All-Pac-12 selection for the second team. Follow him on Twitter @Jeff Schwartz.

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